Ministers say there is no problem.. Bollchocks… The UK has almost zero gas reserves and thinks we can go to Germany for gas, at a time when Germany has effectively put itself under the Russian gas cosh. Putin looks happy — which is never encouraging. Here in the UK, furlough payments to support jobs are about to end.
VAT in eateries is being reintroduced. Yet, the economy is running nowhere near normal. The newspapers are talking about massive post pandemic redundancies — even though the UK employment data looks positive. And a worsening supply chain crash increasingly looks likely to cascade into full blown crisis as one small problem morphs into multiple large problems down the line. Take a look at sterling.
Is coronavirus about to trigger further slowdown and lockdowns? What are the chances of a full blown recession and market crash? Or… what about the more difficult one; how competently will the UK handle potential stagflation if these factors combine to push the economy downhill? Recession plus inflation — stagflation. There are massive policy risks. Consumer fears remain elevated as drivers continue to keep their tanks full.
My Rangey is still sitting on the drive with 30 miles in it… but She-Who-Is-Mrs-Blain is intending to go hunting diesel later today…. Some companies are doing better than others. Despite the shortages which have crushed other automakers who are mothballing plants around the globe , Tesla managed to increase production and deliveries through Q3 — k cars were above the most optimistic expectations. It has struggled with delays, but coped and even found ways to retrofit components as and when they become available.
Rising fuel costs will also help boost adoption, but more and more competitors are getting into the EV space — where Tesla clearly has first mover and pioneer status.. Regular readers will be shocked I am saying nice things about Tesla…. There is a general rising sense of tension and uncertainty.
The rising tension means every missed delivery has magnified consequences when reacting to other economic forces. This month we will get interesting employment data from the UK — despite the skills shortages across logistics, transport and hospitality, but how many of the 1 million workers who were still on furlough at the end of September will have jobs to go back to? The longer supply chains remain in turmoil the higher inflation will go — rising demand and falling supply has only one possible outcome: higher prices.
You can imagine an economy where central banks are forced to hike rates even as unemployment rises — not everyone can retrain to drive a truck.. That said one of my mates who got his HGV licence years ago got a very nice letter from the government last week offering him attractive gainful employment in freight haulage… hmm.. Is there likely to be a buying opportunity ahead of normalising supply chains?
That rather depends on how the market prices in the rising inflationary threat relative to holding low yielding bonds. The complex and non-intuitive maths of bonds means rising interest rates will actually force many bond buyers to buy more bonds to match duration and liabilities! And central banks know an inflationary spike in interest rates could trigger a market meltdown, a crisis in the investment management industry and a hit to voter pension savings, causing governments to demand they step back in to back markets… Personally — if a crunch comes, I will be a selective buyer!
The cracks, however, do indicate that you may be a bit dehydrated. Gastroenterologist Robyn Karlstadt, M. When waste passes through the colon quickly, this texture of poop is often the result. It can also indicate a major change in your diet. This advanced stage of diarrhea occurs when the small intestine is irritated. There are numerous causes of this type of stool, including viruses and bacteria, digestive disorders, and lactose intolerance.
Sometimes eating or drinking things with lots of fructose or artificial sweeteners, or starting a new medication can be the cause, according to the Mayo Clinic. If your diarrhea lasts more than two days, contact your doctor.
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