Fighters face off against a few opponents in pools, are ranked according to some metric, and then seeded into a bracket. They are what make things exciting. Which may lead us to ask: how important are pool rankings to overall elimination bracket success? And if you take issue with my methodology, I encourage you to do better! Like most of my analysis, I work with what I have. And at the moment it is a data set dominated by Western North American events, many using the same pool indicator scoring algorithm.
The first thing I was interested in was: How much does your rank predict your win percentage? After filtering out some bad data, I had matches left, from which I got to this relationship.
It matches fairly well with my intuitive sense, but there are more details in the nerd stuff at the bottom of this post. With a model in hand, I was able to work out the chances of each fighter doing well in a bracket. This is all single elimination bracket; double elimination would change stuff a bit—most likely increasing the odds of high-seeded fighters doing well. Now what about different sized brackets, I hear you ask with bated breath.
One thing that the previous results assumed was that the bracket was seeded properly, with the top fighters kept away from each other. What if they were just randomly thrown into the bracket?
Not entirely surprising, as the advantage of a seeded pool is that the higher ranked fighters are kept away from fighting each other for as long as possible. The last thing to consider is an elimination pool. This option is even better for ensuring that the better fighters rise to the top, but has time constraint issues. For fun, we can see what a random bracket, seeded bracket, and elimination pool look like side-by-side.
I mean, as a medal. Silver is worth like a hundred times as much per gram as bronze. What does this mean? If you look at the random column, you see that the chances of winning a silver and a bronze medal are almost identical. The reason for this is simple, winning silver and bronze are the exact same thing! It is a made-up "-ology", sadly, so don't change your major just yet. All 68 of these teams are seeded based on their skill level. Seeding is an official ranking compiled by the tournament's Selection Committee — a member group of school and conference administrators responsible for selecting, seeding and bracketing the field.
The results of this process are revealed to the public on Selection Sunday, when the full bracket is announced. First is the region seed, which is most often what people are referring to when they mention a team's seed. Each region has 16 teams, which are each ranked 1 the highest through 16 the lowest.
Second is the overall seed, which ranks each of the 68 teams in the tournament 1 the highest through 68 the lowest. This is used to help determine which seeds are placed in which regions. For fairness, the committee tries not to place the best 1 seed in the same region as the best 2 seed, and so on. This process serves to reward better teams with easier routes to the championship and also spreads the best teams throughout the bracket so that no region is unfairly lopsided and competition is as fair as possible.
Bracketology usually involves college basketball analysts predicting how this seeding process will play out, creating a mock bracket. PDF :. The Tigers have seven Quadrant 2 wins and three Quadrant 2 losses. The three Quadrant 2 losses were the home losses to Arkansas and Florida and the ugly early-season Oklahoma State loss. The second-to-last bullet point is applicable with LSU. Several mock bracketologies have LSU as a No.
Once the field of 68 is determined, the committee members then place those teams on the seed list from No. But first, the members submit a list of their top eight teams — or the full No. Those teams can be automatic qualifiers or at-large qualifiers. After the committee agrees on the top eight teams, then those teams are ranked.
The team receiving the least amount of points is the No. Then the other seven teams are placed on the seed list in order after that. There are 16 levels i. The teams on the seed lines, so all No. If teams have played each other two or more times during the season, they shall not meet until the Sweet Sixteen.
0コメント